THE 2013/14 FOOTBALL SEASON ACROSS EUROPE (PART 2): The mathematical approach to being a clairvoyant on the CONTENDERS

                                                                                                       

 

                                                                                               



 



With the 2013/14 season having an average of 4 matches played across the major leagues in Europe, notably Spain, Germany, Italy, England and France, permit me to say that the million dollar question on the mind every follower of the beautiful game in these leagues is who the CHAMPIONS would be, in addition to the teams to dominate these leagues, courtesy having a top half table finish and instrumentally, a top 4/5 finish.  

This article is expected to follow the trend built by the inaugural edition of the series, "The Contenders Rating Scale (CRS)" which kicked of in the 2012/13 football season, http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-20122013-football-season-contenders.html

Contenders Rating Scale (CRS)  is a mathematical approach to predicting a minimum of the 3 teams that would have a top 5 finish in the major leagues across Europe. Please note that for the purpose of this work, every team in consideration would be referred to as the Contenders and interestingly, with the CRS, you don’t have to guess the final team placement in your favourite league in vain, as the CRS would be your guide and of course, get you being a clairvoyant in this respect. 

Here are some useful links on the success of the Contenders Rating Scale in the 2012/2013 season:

http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-contenders-rating-scale-in-german.html    
(German bundesliga Contenders Rating Scale)

http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-contenders-rating-scale-in-french.html    
(French Ligue 1 Contenders Rating Scale)

http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-contenders-rating-scale-in-italian.html    
(Italian Serie A Contenders Rating Scale)

http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-contenders-rating-scale-in-spanish.html   
(Spanish La Liga Contenders Rating Scale)

http://taiwokehinde-mymind.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-contenders-rating-scale-in-epl-its.html   
(EPL Contenders Rating Scale)

With the success achieved, courtesy the aforementioned links, it is expected that the 2013/2014 season would be no different, as it would be an efficient tool in predicting the final table placement outcome in these leagues.

We would begin with the German Bundesliga, whilst providing a step by step approach to RIGHTLY predicting the final top 5 teams. 

Contenders Rating Scale (CRS): How it works!

In arriving at the final 5 teams in the respective leagues, the top 5 teams in the last 5 years would be closely examined and their cumulative scores, being the determining factor in making the cut to the CONTENDERS TABLE.

Mathematically, below is a guide to exude how the CRS works:

 1. The top 5 teams in each of the last 5 years (seasons) "2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and 2012/2013" will be considered for selection as the  Contenders.

2.  In analysing the last 5 years thereby paying attention to the top 5 teams in these years, a 5 mark (point) scale will be used to credit the teams based on their final league table placement in each of these years as stated in step 1.

3. Having rated these teams, the overall total mark scale will be obtained by summing up the yearly mark scale of these clubs based on the number of times they had a top 5 finish and subsequently the final league placement in each of these years would be the major determinant at arriving at the overall mark scale.

From the 'afore-guide’, with the marks summed up, the 5 teams with the highest marks will make up Contenders Table.

With  respect to guide/step 2, the below refers:

The 1^st placed teams will have 5 marks (mks)

The 2^nd placed team will have 4 mks.

The 3^rd placed team will have 3 mks.

The 4the placed team will have 2 mks.

The 5^th placed team will have 1 mk.

In this edition of the Contenders Rating Scale (CRS), we would kick off our illustration with the German Bundesliga, while the French Ligue 1, English Premier League, Spanish La Liga and Italian Serie A would all be respectively touched on.

THE GERMAN BUNDESLIGA: Top 5 at a Glance

 Below is the CRS of the German Bundesliga:

 TABLE 1:        2008/2009 GERMAN BUNDESLIGA (YEAR 1)

TABLE 2:         2009/2010 GERMAN BUNDESLIGA (YEAR 2) 

TABLE 3:         2010/2011 GERMAN BUNDESLIGA(YEAR 3)

TABLE 4:         2011/2012 GERMAN BUNDESLIGA (YEAR 4)

TABLE 5:         2012/2013 GERMAN BUNDESLIGA (YEAR 5)

From the 5 tables above, it is noticed that cumulatively,  11 teams were in the top 5 position, at one season or the order. This is detailed in the table below dubbed "The "Contenders  Table"

TABLE 6: THE GERMAN BUNDESLIGA CONTENDERS TABLE 

From these 11 teams, the teams with the top 5 cumulative grade points (expected top 5 finishers of the 2013/14 season in the Bundesliga) are Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke 04 and VFL Wolfburg.

It imperative you note that the table above does not illustrate the order of final placement of these teams at the end of the season and a minimum of 3 teams are expected to make the cut.
 

Lastly, I predict that either/both Stuttgart and Werder Bremen would replace the 2/1 team(s) that may fallout from the final table placement. 

*The top 5 teams closely expected, my league CHAMPION in the German Bundesliga would be Borussia Dortmund. 

THE FRENCH LIGUE 1: Top 5 at a Glance

The French Ligue 1 Contenders Rating Scale would follow the same sequence of the German Bundesliga earlier illustrated.

In a similar fashion, the 5 years to consider in determining the teams to have a top 5 finish are the 2008/09; 2009/10; 2010/11; 2011/12 and the 2012/13.

Kicking the tabular history would be the 2008/09 season subsequently illustrated below:

  
TABLE 7:        2008/2009 FRENCH LIGUE 1 (YEAR 1)

TABLE 8:         2009/2010 FRENCH LIGUE 1 (YEAR 2) 

TABLE 9:         2010/2011  FRENCH LIGUE 1 (YEAR 3)

TABLE 10:       2011/2012  FRENCH LIGUE 1 (YEAR 4)

TABLE 11:       2012/2013 FRENCH LIGUE 1 (YEAR 5)

From the 5 tables above, it is noticed that cumulatively,  11 teams were in the top 5 position, at one season or the order.

Like earlier illustrated in the German Bundesliga, "The "Contenders  Table" in the French Ligue 1 is shown below:

TABLE 12: THE FRENCH LIGUE 1 CONTENDERS TABLE 

From the Contenders Rating Scale table above, it is observed that Marseille, Lyon, Paris Saint Germain and Lille respectively had 17, 15, 11 and 11 cumulative points.

However, catching our attention would be Montpellier and Bordeaux tied with the same cumulative points and placed in 5th and 6th place.

Due to this tie, the CRS in the French Ligue 1 would pay attention to the top 6  teams in which 4 of them (Marseille, Lyon, Paris Saint Germain, Lille, Bordeaux or Montpellier) is predicted to have a top 6 finish at the end of the season.

Importantly, with 2 of these teams not making the cut, I project that newly promoted side and big money spenders,  AS Monaco would have a significant finish (top 6) at the end of the season (pushing fellow big spenders and current holders of the French Ligue 1 title, Paris Saint Germain), all the way by finishing in second place. Interestingly, I will not be surprised if Monaco displaces PSG and win the 2013/14 season – remember you first heard this from me when it happens.

THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE: Top 5 at a Glance

Following the train in this clairvoyant touch to knowing the minimum of three teams to have a top 5 finish in the major football leagues across Europe is the English Premier League (EPL).

In a similar fashion, the 5 years to consider in determining the teams to have a top 5 finish are the 2008/09; 2009/10; 2010/11; 2011/12 and the 2012/13 seasons in that order.

 TABLE 13:      2008/2009 EPL (YEAR 1)

TABLE 14:       2009/2010 EPL (YEAR 2) 

TABLE 15:       2010/2011  EPL (YEAR 3)

TABLE 16:       2011/2012  EPL (YEAR 4)

TABLE 17:       2012/2013 EPL (YEAR 5)

From the 5 tables above, it is noticed that cumulatively,  8 teams were in the top 5 position, at one season or the order. This is detailed in the table below dubbed "The "Contenders  Table":

TABLE 18: THE ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE CONTENDERS TABLE

Interestingly, with regards to the English Premier League only 8 teams recorded a top 5 finish in the last 5 years.

In focus, a minimum of 3 of Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspurs would have a top 5 finish, come the end of the 2013/14 season.

Be reminded that the order in which these teams are arranged in the CRS, is no illustration of their final league placement order.

Next in focus is the Italian Serie A, following the trend of the earlier discussed leagues.

*My take on the League Champion would be Arsenal but no doubt, there would be a little or a very insignificant change to the title contenders, as notably Manchester United and Chelsea would push them all the way.

THE ITALIAN SERIE A: Top 5 at a Glance


 TABLE 19:        2008/2009 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 1)

TABLE 20:       2009/2010 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 2) 

TABLE 21:       2010/2011 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 3)

TABLE 22:       2011/2012 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 4)

TABLE 23:       2012/2013  ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 5)

From the 5 tables above, it is noticed that cumulatively,  11 teams were in the top 5 position, at one season or the order. These teams are found in the table below:

TABLE 24: THE ITALIAN SERIE A CONTENDERS TABLE 

  



The  Italian Serie A has AC Milan, Juventus, Inter Milan, Napoli and Udinese paving the way in the Contenders Rating Scale, entailing that a minimum of 3 of these teams would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2013/14 Italian Serie A season.

*Juventus would win the league for a third consecutive time is my expectation, though I consider Napoli to push them to the very end for the title, while either or both Milan sides (Inter and AC Milan) would have a significant finish.


THE SPANISH LA LIGA: Top 5 at a Glance

 

Lastly, the Spanish Primera Liga would be our touchdown in the Contenders Rating Scale analysis which would be no different from the earlier treated leagues, as the same steps would be closely implemented.

In similar fashion, subsequently illutsrated are the 2008/09; 2009/10; 2010/11; 2011/12 and 2012/13 seasons.

 TABLE 25:      2008/2009 SPANISH  PRIMERA LIGA (YEAR 1)

TABLE 26:       2009/2010  SPANISH  PRIMERA LIGA (YEAR 2)

TABLE 27:       2010/2011 SPANISH  PRIMERA LIGA (YEAR 3)

TABLE 28:       2011/2012 SPANISH  PRIMERA LIGA (YEAR 4)

TABLE 29:       2012/2013 SPANISH  PRIMERA LIGA (YEAR 5)

From this 5 reference tables, it is observed that cumulatively, the Contenders Rating Scale of the Spanish Primera Liga had 9 teams ceiling a top 5 finish at one season or the other. 

These teams are tabularised below:

TABLE 30: THE  SPANISH LA LIGA CONTENDERS TABLE

From the Contenders Table above, a minimum of 3 of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia, Sevilla or Atletico Madrid are expected to have a top 5 finish in the 2013/14 La Liga Season.

With an average of 3 matches played in the aforementioned leagues, these projections wrapped up on September 3, 2013 would no doubt get you all exuding your clairvoyant skills.

*Barcelona is where I will put my money on, though as usual and always, the league title would be a two-horse race between the defending champions, Barcelona and Real Madrid.

These closely followed, I bet the final table placement of the 2013/14 season is well anticipated with a view to knowing the efficiency of the Contenders Rating Scale.


Watch out for the 2013/14 Mid-Season Contenders evaluation across the board on this blog This is projected to be published in January 2014.