In the course of the 2012/2013 season, I propounded the Contenders Rating Scale to provide a platform through which football lovers around the globe are able to mathematically predict the teams that would be the top 5 finishers across 5 of Europe’s elite football leagues, namely; - English Premier League, Spanish La Lliga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and the French Ligue 1.
What is the Contenders
Rating Scale (CRS): The CRS is a
mathematical approach to predicting at least three teams that would have a top five
finish in the major leagues across Europe.
Please note that for
the purpose of this work, every team in consideration would be referred to as
the Contenders. Interestingly,
with the CRS, you don’t have to guess the final team placement in your
favourite league in vain, as the CRS would get you being a clairvoyant with at
least 3 of the teams being correct.
The
formula:
The
CRS is mathematical, involving 5 sequential steps critical to one’s clairvoyance
on the top 5 table standings in one’s favourite football season at the end of
the season. These steps are as follows;
1.
Know the top 5 teams of the football league that is being reviewed in each of
the last 5 years/seasons prior to the season that is being analysed. Thus the
top 5 teams in the 2016/2017, 2015/2016, 2014/2015, 2013/2014 and 2012/2013
football seasons;
2. A 5 mark/point scale is credited to the teams based on their final league table
placement. This is illustrated below
i.
The 1st placed teams will
have 5 marks (mks)
ii.
The 2nd placed team will
have 4 mks.
iii.
The 3rd placed team will
have 3 mks.
iv.
The 4the placed team will have 2 mks.
v.
The 5th placed team will
have 1 mk.
3.
The marks obtained by every team in the five years evaluated under study are
summed up to arrive at the cumulative score.
4.
The teams with the top 5 cumulative scores would make up the contenders.
5.
A minimum of 3 of these 5 teams – in no particular order of cumulative points
accumulated – would at the end of the season constitute the Contenders Rating
Table for the respective season (2017/2018 in this case) that is being
reviewed.
The Elite Seasons:
As
earlier noted, the 5 leagues for analyses are the English Premier League,
Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1 and German Bundesliga
The English Premier League:
2016/2017
Barclays Premier League (YEAR 5)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Chelsea
|
1st
|
5
|
Tottenham
Hotspur
|
2nd
|
4
|
Man
City
|
3rd
|
3
|
Liverpool
|
4th
|
2
|
Arsenal
|
5th
|
1
|
2015/2016
Barclays Premier League (YEAR 4)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Leicester
City
|
1st
|
5
|
Arsenal
|
2nd
|
4
|
Tottenham
Hotspur
|
3rd
|
3
|
Man
City.
|
4th
|
2
|
Man
Utd.
|
5th
|
1
|
2014/2015
Barclays Premier League (YEAR 3)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Chelsea
|
1st
|
5
|
Man
City
|
2nd
|
4
|
Arsenal
|
3rd
|
3
|
Man
Utd.
|
4th
|
2
|
Tottenham
|
5th
|
1
|
2013/2014
Barclays Premier League (YEAR 2)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Man City
|
1st
|
5
|
Liverpool
|
2nd
|
4
|
Chelsea
|
3rd
|
3
|
Arsenal
|
4th
|
2
|
Everton
|
5th
|
1
|
2012/2013
Barclays Premier League (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Man Utd.
|
1st
|
5
|
Man City
|
2nd
|
4
|
Chelsea
|
3rd
|
3
|
Arsenal
|
4th
|
2
|
Tottenham Hotspur
|
5th
|
1
|
With
the preceding years analysed, the following are notable highlights from the Contenders
Rating Cumulative table below:
·
8 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last
5 seasons
·
The top 5 teams from the cumulative marks/scores obtained are
Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Man Utd.
·
At least 3 of the aforementioned 5 teams would have a top 5
finish
THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE
(Table E6)
Teams
|
Yr. 5
Scores
|
Yr. 4
Scores
|
Yr. 3
Scores
|
Yr. 2
Scores
|
Yr. 1
Scores
|
Cumulative
Scores
|
Manchester City
|
3
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
18
|
Chelsea
|
5
|
-
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
16
|
Arsenal
|
1
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
12
|
Tottenham Hotspur
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
9
|
Man Utd.
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
-
|
5
|
8
|
Liverpool
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
6
|
Leicester City
|
-
|
5
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
5
|
Everton
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
Spanish
La Liga:
With
the Spanish La Liga analysed, observations from the forthcoming 2017/2018
season are as follows:
·
8 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last
5 seasons
·
The projected top 5 teams in line with the Cumulative Table
are Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla and Valencia
·
At least 3 of these teams as exuded by table S6 below would
have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2017/2018
2016/2017
Spanish La Liga (YEAR 5)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Real
Madrid
|
1st
|
5
|
Barcelona
|
2nd
|
4
|
Atletico
Madrid
|
3rd
|
3
|
Sevilla
|
4th
|
2
|
Villarreal
|
5th
|
1
|
2015/2016
Spanish La Liga (YEAR 4)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Barcelona
|
1st
|
5
|
Real
Madrid
|
2nd
|
4
|
Atletico
Madrid
|
3rd
|
3
|
Villarreal
|
4th
|
2
|
Athletic
Bilbao
|
5th
|
1
|
2014/2015
Spanish La Liga (YEAR 3)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Barcelona
|
1st
|
5
|
Real
Madrid
|
2nd
|
4
|
Atletico
Madrid
|
3rd
|
3
|
Valencia
|
4th
|
2
|
Sevilla
|
5th
|
1
|
2013/2014
Spanish La Liga (YEAR 2)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Atletico Madrid
|
1st
|
5
|
Barcelona
|
2nd
|
4
|
Real Madrid
|
3rd
|
3
|
Athletic Bilbao
|
4th
|
2
|
Sevilla
|
5th
|
1
|
2012/2013
Spanish La Liga (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Barcelona
|
1st
|
5
|
Real Madrid
|
2nd
|
4
|
Atletico Madrid
|
3rd
|
3
|
Valencia
|
4th
|
2
|
Real Sociedad
|
5th
|
1
|
THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE
(Table 6)
Teams
|
Yr. 5
Scores
|
Yr. 4
Scores
|
Yr. 3
Scores
|
Yr. 2
Scores 5
|
Yr. 1
Scores
|
Cumulative
Scores
|
Barcelona
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
23
|
Real Madrid
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
20
|
Atletico Madrid
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
15
|
Sevilla
|
2
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
4
|
Valencia
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
2
|
4
|
Villarreal
|
1
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
Athletic Bilbao
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
3
|
Real Sociedad
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
NB: 8 teams had a top 5 finish in
one or more years in the last 5 Spanish La Liga seasons (2016/2017 – 2012/2013)
The German Bundesliga:
The
following are observations from the proceeding 6 tables to be discussed on the
Bundesliga Contenders Rating Table:
·
9 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last
5 seasons (2016/2017 – 2012/2013)
·
At least 3 of Bayern
Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Schalke 04, Borussia
Monchengladbach and VFL Wolfsburg would have a top 5 finish at the end of
the 201/2018 season.
2016/2017
Bundesliga (YEAR 5)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Bayern
Munich
|
1st
|
5
|
RB
Leipzig
|
2nd
|
4
|
Dortmund
|
3rd
|
3
|
Hoffenheim
|
4th
|
2
|
FC
Koln
|
5th
|
1
|
2015/2016
Bundesliga (YEAR 4)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Bayern
Munich
|
1st
|
5
|
Dortmund
|
2nd
|
4
|
Leverkusen
|
3rd
|
3
|
Borussia
Monchengladbach
|
4th
|
2
|
Schalke
04
|
5th
|
1
|
2014/2015
Bundesliga (YEAR 3)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Bayrn
Munich
|
1st
|
5
|
Wolfsburg
|
2nd
|
4
|
Borussia
Monchengladbach
|
3rd
|
3
|
Bayer
Leverkusen
|
4th
|
2
|
Augsburg
|
5th
|
1
|
2013/2014
Bundesliga (YEAR 2)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Bayern Munich
|
1st
|
5
|
Borussia Dortmund
|
2nd
|
4
|
Schalke 04
|
3rd
|
3
|
Bayer Leverkusen
|
4th
|
2
|
VFL Wolfsburg
|
5th
|
1
|
2012/2013
Bundesliga (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Bayern Munich
|
1st
|
5
|
Dortmund
|
2nd
|
4
|
Bayer Leverkusen
|
3rd
|
3
|
Schalke 04
|
4th
|
2
|
Freiburg
|
5th
|
1
|
THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE
(Table G6)
Teams
|
Yr. 1
Scores
|
Yr. 2
Scores
|
Yr. 3
Scores
|
Yr. 4
Scores 5
|
Yr. 5
Scores
|
Cumulative
Scores
|
Bayern Munich
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
25
|
Borussia Dortmund
|
3
|
4
|
-
|
4
|
4
|
15
|
Schalke 04
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
Borussia Monchengladbach
|
-
|
2
|
3
|
-
|
-
|
5
|
Vfl Wolfsburg
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
1
|
-
|
5
|
Hoffenheim
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
Koln
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
Augsburg
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
FC Freiburg
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
The Italian Seria A:
The
following are observations from the 6 tables to be discussed on the league in
view:
·
9 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last
5 seasons (2016/2017 – 2013/2014
·
The top 5 teams in line with the cumulative marks/scores
obtained are g. Juventus, Roma, Napoli, Fiorentina & Atalanta
·
At least 3 of the
earlier mentioned 5 teams would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2017/2018
season
2016/2017
Serie A (YEAR 5)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
Roma
|
2nd
|
4
|
Napoli
|
3rd
|
3
|
Atalanta
|
4th
|
2
|
Lazio
|
5th
|
1
|
2015/2016
Serie A (YEAR 4)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
Napoli
|
2nd
|
4
|
Roma
|
3rd
|
3
|
Inter
|
4th
|
2
|
Fiorentina
|
5th
|
1
|
2014/2015
Serie A (YEAR 3)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
Lazio
|
2nd
|
4
|
Roma
|
3rd
|
3
|
Fiorentina
|
4th
|
2
|
Napoli
|
5th
|
1
|
2013/2014
Serie A (YEAR 2)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
AS Roma
|
2nd
|
4
|
Napoli
|
3rd
|
3
|
Fiorentina
|
4th
|
2
|
F.C. Internationale
|
5th
|
1
|
2012/2013
Seria A (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
Napoli
|
2nd
|
4
|
Milan
|
3rd
|
3
|
Fiorentina
|
4th
|
2
|
Udinese
|
5th
|
1
|
THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE
(Table I6)
Teams
|
Yr. 1
Scores
|
Yr. 2
Scores
|
Yr. 3
Scores
|
Yr. 4
Scores 5
|
Yr. 5
Scores
|
Cumulative
Scores
|
Juventus
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
25
|
Roma
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
-
|
14
|
Napoli
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
-
|
11
|
Fiorentina
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
7
|
Atalanta
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
6
|
Lazio
|
1
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
-
|
5
|
Inter
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
3
|
Milan
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
3
|
Udinese
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
1
|
The French Ligue 1:
In
rounding off the Contenders Rating Scale League analysis across Europe, the
French Ligue 1 would be discussed in a similar fashion as the 4 leagues earlier
brought to the fore.
2016/2017
Ligue 1 (YEAR 5)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Monaco
|
1st
|
5
|
Paris
Saint-Germaine
|
2nd
|
4
|
Nice
|
3rd
|
3
|
Lyon
|
4th
|
2
|
Marseille
|
5th
|
1
|
2015/2016
Ligue 1 (YEAR 4)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Paris
Saint-Germaine
|
1st
|
5
|
Lyon
|
2nd
|
4
|
Monaco
|
3rd
|
3
|
Nice
|
4th
|
2
|
Lille
|
5th
|
1
|
2014/2015
Ligue 1 (YEAR 3)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Paris
Saint Germain
|
1st
|
5
|
Lyon
|
2nd
|
4
|
Monaco
|
3rd
|
3
|
Marseille
|
4th
|
2
|
St
Etienne
|
5th
|
1
|
2013/2014
Ligue 1 (YEAR 2)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Paris Saint Germain
|
1st
|
5
|
AS Monaco
|
2nd
|
4
|
Lille
|
3rd
|
3
|
St. Etienne
|
4th
|
2
|
Lyon
|
5th
|
1
|
2012/2013
Ligue 1 (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Positions
|
Marks
|
Paris Saint Germain
|
1st
|
5
|
Marseille
|
2nd
|
4
|
Lyon
|
3rd
|
3
|
Nice
|
4th
|
2
|
St. Etienne
|
5th
|
1
|
THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE
(Table F6)
Teams
|
Yr. 5
Scores
|
Yr. 4
Scores
|
Yr. 3
Scores
|
Yr. 2
Scores 5
|
Yr. 1
Scores
|
Cumulative
Scores
|
Paris Saint Germain
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
24
|
Monaco
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
-
|
15
|
Lyon
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
14
|
Nice
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
7
|
Marseille
|
1
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
4
|
7
|
Lille
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
3
|
-
|
4
|
St. Etienne
|
-
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
The following observations are drawn
from the tabular analysis above:
·
7 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last
5 seasons (2016/2017 – 2012/2013
·
The top 5 teams in line with the cumulative marks/scores
obtained are PSG, Monaco, Lyon, Nice, Marseille, Lille and St. Etienne
·
3 of the earlier
mentioned 5 teams would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2017/2018 season
Disclaimer:
The Contenders Rating Scale does not predict the league winners but ONLY a
minimum of 3 of the top 5 finishers in the 5 football leagues in discuss.
