THE CONTENDERS:
Having had a post-season analysis of the 2011/12 Italian
Serie A season in the work; The
Twists and Turns of the 2012 “beautiful game” season: Serie A, this wok
(The Italian Serie A Contenders Rating Scale) will be an irony in the sense
that it will be what I call a pre-season ending analysis. To this
end, it is primarily aimed at predicting the likely teams to have a top 5
finish, further picking out the team that will possibly win the Italian Serie A.
These likely teams are referred to as the contenders.
But first of all, the big question is how best to
get these teams selected? The answer, The Contenders
Rating Scale (CRS)!
*Related works -
The CRS primarily entails the manner
through which the selection of the teams that are more likely to compete for
the Serie A trophy and a top 5 placement is made. This selection process will
guide the purpose of this work which is to arrive at a projection on the more favoured clubs
that I hypothesize will be in the best position to win the league or at least
have a top notch finish that will lead to the qualification of the coveted UEFA
Champions league spot.
No doubt the 2011/2012 Italisn
Serie A season like previous seasons left an indelible mark in the
hearts of football lovers of the first tier Italian Football League (Serie A) which
no doubt seals the fact that the 2012/2013 will not be left out.
THE CONTENDERS
RATING SCALE:
As earlier stated, the contenders entails the
5 teams that will make the final selection for analyzing this work, having
considered the consistency of these teams with regards to their top 5 final
table placement in the last 5 years.
The CRS will
entail the following steps;
1. The top 5 teams in each of the last 5 years
(seasons) “2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and the 2011/2012” will
be considered for selection into the contenders.
2. In
analyzing the last 5 years thereby paying attention to the top 5 teams in these
years, a 5 mark (point) scale will be used to credit the teams
based on their final league table placement in each of these years as stated in
step
1.
3. Having rated these teams, the overall total mark
scale will be obtained by summing up the yearly mark scale of these clubs based
on the number of times they had a top 5 finish and the mark scale they had with
regards to the team’s position.
The order through which these teams will be credited
are as follows;
The 1st placed teams will have 5 marks (mks)
The 2nd placed team will have 4 mks.
The 3rd placed team will have 3 mks.
The 4the placed team will have 2 mks.
The 5th placed team will have 1 mk.
An illustration of the Contenders Rating Scale is
shown below;
TABLE 1: 2007/2008
ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR 1)
Teams
|
Position
|
Marks
|
Internazionale
|
1st
|
5
|
AS Roma
|
2nd
|
4
|
Juventus
|
3rd
|
3
|
Fiorentina
|
4th
|
2
|
AC Milan
|
5th
|
1
|
TABLE
2: 2008/2009 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR
“YR” 2)
Teams
|
Position
|
Marks
|
Internazionale
|
1st
|
5
|
Juventus
|
2nd
|
4
|
AC Milan
|
3rd
|
3
|
Fiorentina
|
4th
|
2
|
Genoa
|
5th
|
1
|
TABLE 3: 2009/2010 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR “YR” 3)
Teams
|
Position
|
Marks
|
Internazionale
|
1st
|
5
|
AC Roma
|
2nd
|
4
|
AC Milan
|
3rd
|
3
|
Sampdoria
|
4th
|
2
|
Palermo
|
5th
|
1
|
TABLE 4: 2010/2011 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR “YR” 4)
Teams
|
Position
|
Marks
|
AC Milan
|
1st
|
5
|
Internazionale
|
2nd
|
4
|
Napoli
|
3rd
|
3
|
Udinese
|
4th
|
2
|
Lazio
|
5th
|
1
|
TABLE 5: 2011/2012 ITALIAN SERIE A (YEAR “YR” 5)
Teams
|
Position
|
Marks
|
Juventus
|
1st
|
5
|
AC Milan
|
2nd
|
4
|
Udinese
|
3rd
|
3
|
Lazio
|
4th
|
2
|
Napoli
|
5th
|
1
|
Based on the Contenders Rating Scale as shown in the
5 tables above, it is noticed that 11 teams were featured at one time or the
other. These teams are; Juventus, AC Milan, Internazionale, AS Roma, Fiorentina, Genoa, Sampdoria,
Palermo, Udinese, Lazio and Napoli.
The total marks obtained by these teams are as
follows in the contenders table below;
THE
CONTENDERS TABLE
Teams
|
YR 1 Mks
|
YR 2 Mks
|
YR 3 Mks
|
YR 4 Mks
|
YR 5 Mks
|
Total Marks
|
Internazionale
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
0
|
19
|
AC Milan
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
16
|
Juventus
|
3
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
12
|
AS Roma
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
Udinese
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
Napoli
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
Fiorentina
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
Lazio
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Sampdoria
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
Palermo
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
Genoa
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
*NB The
table above has all 11 teams which at one time or the other in the last 5 years
had a top 5 finish in the Italian Serie A.
Further to this, all marks obtained with regards to
the 5 marks rating scale are stated in each of these years with the summation
of marks obtained in all 5 years achieved stated in Total Marks.
Of all 11 teams, Internazionale (Inter Milan) with 19
marks had the highest score. This is evident in the Milan based club being
Serie A Champions 3 times, runners up once and in the 2011/12 Serie A campaign
not having a top 5 league table placement.
Noteworthy, it is paramount to state that of all
teams in the Contenders Table, only AC
Milan recorded a top 5 finish in all five years under study.
These said, the teams that made the final cut for
the 2012/13 Contenders are; Internazionale, AC Milan, Juventus, AS Roma and
Udinese.
With this achieved, it is high time the 2012/13
Italian Serie A Contenders is discussed with the primary aim of predicting the
team that would win the league in the aforesaid season and how the final table
outlook will be with respect to the top 5 league table placement as earlier
stated.
Thus, the big question is; will the old ladies
(Juventus) retain their 2011/12 Serie A crown?
The Italian Serie A
Contenders analysis to be analyzed in a fortnight will get the question
answered.
References:
“2007/08 Italian Serie A Table / Table
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