Sunday, August 9, 2015

THE 2015/2016 CONTENDERS RATING SCALE: Mathematically Predicting the final top 5 of in Europe’s elite football league?


                                                                         

                        



                                                           




 


    
 


In the course of the 2012/2013 season, the Contenders Rating Scale was introduced to provide a platform through which football lovers around the globe are clairvoyant of the teams that would have a top 5 finish at the end of the yearly football season. In achieving this, 5 of the elite football leagues - English Premier League, Spanish La Lliga, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and the French Ligue 1 – are analysed..
What is the Contenders Rating Scale (CRS): The CRS is a mathematical approach to predicting a minimum of the 3 teams that would have a top 5 finish in the major leagues across Europe. Please note that for the purpose of this work, every team in consideration would be referred to as the Contenders and interestingly, with the CRS, you don’t have to guess the final team placement in your favourite league in vain, as the CRS would get you being a clairvoyant.
The formula:
The formula/steps in achieving clairvoyance of the top 5 table standings at the end of the season is as follow;
1. Know the top 5 teams of the football league that is being reviewed in each of the last 5 years/seasons prior to the season that is being analysed. Thus the top 5 teams in the 2014/2015, 2013/2014, 2012/2013, 2011/2012 and 2010/2011.
2.  A 5 mark/point scale is credited to the teams based on their final league table placement. This is illustrated below
      i.            The 1st placed teams will have 5 marks (mks)
    ii.            The 2nd placed team will have 4 mks.
  iii.            The 3rd placed team will have 3 mks.
  iv.            The 4the placed team will have 2 mks.
    v.            The 5th placed team will have 1 mk.
3. The marks obtained by every team in the five years evaluated under study is summed up to arrive at the cumulative score.
4. The teams with the top 5 cumulative scores would make up the contenders.
NB. A minimum of 3 of these 5 teams – in no particular order of cumulative points accumulated – would at the end of the season constitute the Contenders Rating Table for the respective season that is being reviewed.
The Elite Seasons:
As earlier noted, the 5 leagues for analyses are the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1 and German Bundesliga
The English Premier League:  
2010/2011 Barclays Premier League (YEAR 1)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Man United
1st
5
Chelsea
2nd
4
Man City
3rd
3
Arsenal
4th
2
Tottenham Hotspur
5th
1

2011/2012 Barclays Premier League (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Man City
1st
5
Man United
2nd
4
Arsenal
3rd
3
Tottenham Hotspur
4th
2
Newcastle
5th
1

2012/2013 Barclays Premier League (YEAR 3)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Man United
1st
5
Man City
2nd
4
Chelsea
3rd
3
Arsenal
4th
2
Tottenham
5th
1

2013/2014 Barclays Premier League (YEAR 4)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Man City
1st
5
Liverpool
2nd
4
Chelsea
3rd
3
Arsenal
4th
2
Everton
5th
1





2014/2015 Barclays Premier League (YEAR 5)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Chelsea
1st
5
Man City
2nd
4
Arsenal
3rd
3
Man United
4th
2
Tottenham Hotspur
5th
1





With the preceding years analysed, the following are notable highlights from the Contenders Rating Cumulative table below:
·         8 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last 5 seasons
·         The top 5 teams from the cumulative marks/scores obtained are Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur.
·         A minimum of 3 of the aforementioned 5 teams would have a top 5 finish

THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE (Table 6)



Teams
Yr. 1
Scores
Yr. 2
Scores
Yr. 3
Scores
Yr. 4
Scores
Yr. 5
Scores
Cumulative
Scores
Manchester City
3
5
4
5
4
21
Manchester United
5
4
5
0
2
16
Chelsea
4
0
3
3
5
15
Arsenal
2
3
2
2
3
12
Tottenham Hotspur
1
2
1
0
1
5
Liverpool
0
0
0
4
0
4
Newcastle United
0
1
0
0
0
1
Everton
0
0
0
0
1
1






Spanish La Liga:  
2010/2011 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 1)
With the Spanish La Liga analysed, observations from the forthcoming 2014/2015 season are as follows:
·         The projected top 5 teams in line with the Cumulative Table are Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Valencia and Sevilla
·         A minimum of 3 of these teams as exuded by table 6 below would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2015/2016

2011/2012 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Barcelona
1st
5
Real Madrid
2nd
4
Valencia
3rd
3
Villarreal
4th
2
Sevilla
5th
1

2011/2012 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Real Madrid
1st
5
Barcelona
2nd
4
Valencia
3rd
3
Malaga
4th
2
Atletico Madrid
5th
1

2012/2013 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 3)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Barcelona
1st
5
Real Madrid
2nd
4
Atletico Madrid
3rd
3
Real Sociedad
4th
2
Valencia
5th
1

2013/2014 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 4)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Atletico Madrd
1st
5
Barcelona
2nd
4
Real Madrid
3rd
3
Athletic Bilbao
4th
2
Sevilla
5th
1





2014/2015 Spanish La Liga (YEAR 5)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Barcelona
1st
5
Real Madrid
2nd
4
Atletico Madrid
3rd
3
Valencia
4th
2
Sevilla
5th
1





THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE (Table 6)

Teams
Yr. 1
Scores
Yr. 2
Scores
Yr. 3
Scores
Yr. 4
Scores 5
Yr. 5
Scores
Cumulative
Scores
Barcelona
5
4
5
4
5
23
Real Madrid
4
5
4
3
4
20
Atletico Madrid
0
1
3
5
3
12
Valencia
3
3
1
0
2
9
Sevilla
1
0
0
1
1
3
Villarreal
2
0
0
0
0
2
Malaga
0
2
0
0
0
2
Real Sociedad
0
0
2
0
0
2
Athletic Bilbao
0
0
0
2
0
2
NB: 9 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last 5 Spanish La Liga seasons (2010/2011 – 2014/2015



The German Bundesliga:

The following are observations from the proceeding 6 tables to be discussed on the Bundesliga Contenders Rating Table:

·         10 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last 5 seasons (2010/2011 – 2014/2015
·         A minimum of 3 of  Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke 04 and VFL Wolfsburg would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2015/2016 season
2010/2011 Bundesliga (YEAR 1)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Borussia Dortmund
1st
5
Bayer Leverkusen
2nd
4
Bayern Munich
3rd
3
Hannover 96
4th
2
Mainz
5th
1

2011/2012 Bundesliga (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Borussia Dortmund
1st
5
Bayern Munich
2nd
4
Schalke 04
3rd
3
Borussia Monchengladbach
4th
2
Bayer Leverkusen
5th
1

2012/2013 Bundesliga (YEAR 3)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Bayrn Munich
1st
5
Borussia Dortmund
2nd
4
Bayer Leverkusen
3rd
3
Schalke 04
4th
2
SC Freiburg  
5th
1

2013/2014 Bundesliga (YEAR 4)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Bayern Munich
1st
5
Borussia Dortmund
2nd
4
Schalke 04
3rd
3
Bayer Leverkusen
4th
2
VFL Wolfsburg
5th
1





2014/2015 Bundesliga (YEAR 5)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Bayern Munich
1st
5
VFL Wolfsburg
2nd
4
Borussia Monchengladbach
3rd
3
Bayer Leverkusen
4th
2
FC Augsburg
5th
1





THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE (Table 6)

Teams
Yr. 1
Scores
Yr. 2
Scores
Yr. 3
Scores
Yr. 4
Scores 5
Yr. 5
Scores
Cumulative
Scores
Bayern Munich
3
4
5
5
5
22
Borussia Dortmund
5
5
4
4
0
18
Bayer Leverkusen 
4
1
3
2
2
12
Schalke 04
0
3
2
3
0
8
Vfl Wolfsburg
0
0
0
1
4
5
Borussia Monchengladbach
0
1
0
0
3
4
Hannover 96
2
0
0
0
0
2
Mainz
1
0
0
0
0
1
FC Freiburg
0
0
1
0
0
1
FC Augsburg
0
0
0
0
1
1






The Italian Seria A:

The following are observations from the 6 tables to be discussed on the league in view:

·         8 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last 5 seasons (2010/2011 – 2014/2015
·         The top 5 teams in line with the cumulative marks/scores obtained are g. Juventus, Napoli, AC Milan, A.S. Roma and Udinese
·         A minimum of 3 of  the earlier mentioned 5 teams would have a top 5 finish at the end of the 2015/2016 season
2010/2011 Serie A (YEAR 1)
Teams
Positions
Marks
AC Milan
1st
5
F.C. Internazionale
2nd
4
Napoli
3rd
3
Udinese
4th
2
Lazio
5th
1

2011/2012 Serie A (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Juventus
1st
5
AC Milan
2nd
4
Udinese
3rd
3
Lazio
4th
2
Napoli
5th
1

2012/2013 Serie A (YEAR 3)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Juventus
1st
5
Napoli
2nd
4
AC Milan
3rd
3
Fiorentina
4th
2
Udinese
5th
1

2013/2014 Serie A (YEAR 4)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Juventus
1st
5
AS Roma
2nd
4
Napoli
3rd
3
Fiorentina
4th
2
F.C. Internationale
5th
1




2014/2015 Seria A (YEAR 5)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Juventus
1st
5
AS Roma
2nd
4
Lazio
3rd
3
Fiorentina
4th
2
Napoli
5th
1





THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE (Table 6)

Teams
Yr. 1
Scores
Yr. 2
Scores
Yr. 3
Scores
Yr. 4
Scores 5
Yr. 5
Scores
Cumulative
Scores
Juventus
0
5
5
5
5
20
Napoli
3
1
4
3
1
12
AC Milan
5
4
3
0
0
12
AS Roma
0
0
0
4
4
8
Udinese
2
3
1
0
0
6
Fiorentina
0
0
2
2
2
6
Lazio
1
2
0
0
3
6
FC Internazionale
4
0
0
1
0
5



The French Ligue 1:
In rounding off the Contenders Rating Scale League analysis across Europe, the French Ligue 1 would be discussed in a similar fashion as the 4 leagues earlier brought to the fore.
2010/2011 Ligue 1 (YEAR 1)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Lille
1st
5
Marseille
2nd
4
Lyon
3rd
3
Paris Saint Germaine
4th
2
Sochaux
5th
1

2011/2012 Ligue 1 (YEAR 2)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Montpellier
1st
5
Paris Saint Germain
2nd
4
Lille
3rd
3
Lyon
4th
2
Bordeaux
5th
1

2012/2013 Ligue 1 (YEAR 3)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Paris Saint Germain
1st
5
Marseille
2nd
4
Lyon
3rd
3
Nice
4th
2
St Etienne
5th
1

2013/2014 Ligue 1 (YEAR 4)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Paris Saint Germain
1st
5
AS Monaco
2nd
4
Lille
3rd
3
St. Etienne
4th
2
Lyon
5th
1




2014/2015 Ligue 1 (YEAR 5)
Teams
Positions
Marks
Paris Saint Germain
1st
5
Lyon
2nd
4
AS Monaco
3rd
3
Marseille
4th
2
St. Etienne
5th
1





THE CONTENDERS RATING CUMULATIVE TABLE (Table 6)

Teams
Yr. 1
Scores
Yr. 2
Scores
Yr. 3
Scores
Yr. 4
Scores 5
Yr. 5
Scores
Cumulative
Scores
Paris Saint Germain
2
4
5
5
5
21
Lyon
3
2
3
1
4
13
Lille
5
3
-
3
-
11
Marseille
4
-
4
-
-
8
Montpellier
-
5
-
-
2
7
Monaco
-
-
-
4
3
7
St. Etienne
-
-
1
2
1
4
Nice
-
-
2
-
-
2
Sochaux
-
1
-
-
-
1
Bordeaux
-
1
-
-
-
1
The following observations are drawn from the tabular analysis above:
·         10 teams had a top 5 finish in one or more years in the last 5 seasons (2010/2011 – 2014/2015
Unlike other leagues which had no tie among the top 5, a notable tie applies in the French Ligue 1, with 2011/2012 winners (Montpellier) and 2014/2015 third placed team (Monaco) being tied at 5th place. N