Edging Towards a Robust Nigeria Economy vis-a-vis Import Substitution Strategy

No Man is an Island:

To my mind, The saying,’ No Man is an Island’ resonates why foreign relationship and interaction among countries of the world, especially in the economic realm, takes place as all nations are uniquely and differently blessed with resources, especially material and natural resources.

Whilst human resources are easily sourced e.g. through the academic exposure of nationals to the right environment abroad, thereby being equipped with the right skillset to significantly contribute to the home economy, resources aren’t met with ease when not available in the home country.

To ensure the available of resources not locally sourced, international economic relationship, through foreign trade comes into play.

The importation of goods and services is an important tool in international trade, with the exporting country (seller) the more productive country, whilst the importing (buyer) is most times considered productive when the goods imported are primary products or input necessary in furthering production.

The Balance of trade for example is a very crucial tool to monitor the capabilities of a country’s international trade as it is the difference between her export and import.

Bringing these home, with the challenges experienced in Nigeria, the sharp decline in the purchasing power of her currency -  the Naira – as well as the growing poverty levels and sufferings of Nigerians negates the era of Change majority of the populace had longed for and voted with so much enthusiasm. As at 2014, the exchange rate of Naira to USD was N180, two years down the line, it is N490.

Citeris Paribus:

Citeris paribus, with a Nation’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) being the sum total of C + I + G + (X – M), where C represents consumer spending; I, capital investment and G, government spending, as well as X being export and M, Import the summation of these puts the icing on the cake on why the Nigerian economy is at this time very bleak.

From these 5 indices, Government spending has dwindled overtime as evident in the inability of over 15 states to pay the salaries of their workers, as well as the declined Capital Investment and trade deficits experienced over the years, as evident in a host of firms leaving the shores of Nigeria to Ghana since 2009.

Regardless of these, my thought on the improvement of the Nigerian economy is hinged on her having an export driven economy where common needs like toothpick, food supplies, especially  Rice, vehicle tyres, sleepers and electronics etc. are locally produced at home through the encouragement of Foreign Investment into the country.

According to tradingeconomics.com, “Imports to Nigeria increased 60.4 percent year-on-year to NGN 774998 million in September of 2016, the biggest rise since July of 2013 as a weaker currency lifted import prices”.

More so, popular newspaper, guardian stated that Nigeria has lost its status as the aviation hub in West Africa to Ghana primarily due to the 100% increase in the cost of Aviation fuel – Jet A1 – in Nigeria. Other reasons by venturesafrica include, scarcity of Aviation fuel, devaluation of the Naira and unfriendly government policies. The case of unfriendly government policies is not a surprise, as Nigeria is presently placed 169 out of a possible 190 countries in the Ease of Doing Business Economic Ranking by The World Bank.

According to the World Bank, “a high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm”

 Import Substitution Industrialization:

Pondering through the way forward for Nigeria and her economy is a hurricane task, as driving in the right investors in the right numbers with the right capital is highly dependent on her treating the headaches encountered in the investment climate.

According to the vanguard, “statistics obtained from the 2010 annual report by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the total foreign capital inflow into the Nigerian economy in 2010 was $5.99 billion. The record shows that that FDI represents, 78.1 percent drop from $3.31 billion in 2009. Analysts attributed the decline in FDI to the increasing rate of insecurity in the country as well as infrastructural decay”.

No Foreign Investor puts in Capital into an economy without reaping in good time. As an investor into Nigeria, cost of goods and services are usually on the high side due to what I call ‘Price Surge Determinants (PSDs)”.

Encouraging the right investors into the country increases exports and significantly reduces imports, thereby achieving a favourable blance of trade (Trade Surplus), thereby strengthening the Naira against the dollar and other currencies, especially those of Nigeria’s trade partners.

The PSDs include high cost of vehicle maintenance and transportation of goods due to bad road network, unfavourable tax system, poor security, poor infrastructure and social amenities, high cost of rents and little or no incentives by the Government to lure investors into the country.

To counter these PSDs which usually make the prices of goods and services very expensive to the common man, the government must provide the following:

·         Significant improvement in the power sector;

·         Easing and reducing the processes involved in documentation

·         The availability of motorable roads, especially in the rural areas – thereby easing the movement of raw materials from sourced locations to the concerned firms/production location;

·         Strengthened local banking system with favourable interest rates to encourage borrowing from Local Banks;

·         Acceleration of residency permits by foreign employees of the foreign investing company,

·         Provision of a minimum of 3 years tax holidays, as well as an efficient and realistic tax system;

·         Availability of social amenities like good and affordable hospitals/schools with the best facilities thereby discouraging hospital tourism abroad

·         Efficient security system, low crime rate

In conclusion, the raw material availability and human resource potentials among Nigerians, as well as her huge population among other factors is a propelling force to the Nigerian Government leaving no stones unturned at ensuring the economy of Nigeria is made competitively viable in the global economy.

It is high-time, impossibility became a banned word in all facets of government activities, as making the impossible possible got Qatar, Abu-Dhabi amongst other great nations where they are.

Think Investment, Activate in Nigeria should be the drive to encouraging Foreign Direct Investment vis-à-vis Import Substitution approach.

THE MAGICIAN PRESIDENT

What is Magic? According to freedictionary.com, magic is the art or practice of using charms, spells, or rituals to attempt to produce supernatural effects or control events in nature.

In reference to the above, “The Magician President” is an individual who significantly lives up to the dictates and promises of his manifesto, having exercised a productive control and utilization of resources at his disposal to the good of the citizens and country, indeed the supernatural effect.

Visionary Presidents have one thing in mind; the core essence of leading being to leave behind a legacy for subsequent leaders to build upon which is why the need for a significant meet of set goals vis-à-vis the manifesto cannot be overemphasized.

Decoding MAGICIAN (The Wand Effect)

In order to have a realistic approach to this work, the word MAGICIAN, was decrypted with an acronym which could be inferred to be the wand effect of the Magician President.

Acronymically, these are:

M – Manages the affairs of his State/Country efficiently. Successful leaders exude the zeal to, at the end of their tenure, freely adjudge their manifesto which is the Key Performance Index (KPI) to good governance

A – Attention to details is smart

G – Guards the sovereignty of his country with passion, as well as the interest of citizens home and abroad. This is necessary in view of him or her being the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces

I – Inspires the led and other nations of the world, due to notable successes in his/her approach to governance

C – Compares his country with more successful countries in a pragmatic and healthy manner through benchmarking, with a view to consistently drive social and economic improvement in measurable and realistic terms

I – Innovativeness. Asides being an innovative president, he or she must ensure the environment is friendly to foster innovation by all in the country, as this indeed would foster economic and social development

A – Attracts businesses (especially Foreign Direct Investment). This is achieved when the business environment (policies, facilities and amenities) are conducive and ‘self promoting’ to have investors left with only the choice to invest in the country

N – Never-Says-Never. Naturally an improvement centric leader, frowning at mediocrity and accepting tenacity, nothing short of the best

From the above, a magician president, is a democratic leader who is able to turn around the fortunes of the state he or she leads with the aim of leaving the State (Country) better off than what it was before he or she was elected president and also leaving behind a legacy that would serve as a yardstick with which subsequent presidents would be judged and made to improve upon.

MATERIALISING THE MAGICIAN ATTRIBUTES:

In bringing to life the attributes of the Magician President, such leader must have:

·         A sound manifesto: Every president need to have an intelligently crafted manifesto filled with realism that states his ambitions and plans for the state in an unambiguous manner. The manifesto must be realistic, lack of deceits and should be one that would show enough drive and passion for development of the nation while also retaining the core values of the nation. The manifesto is the steering to a successful government, as it drives the government to achieve its promises. A manifesto formulated with deceit and unrealistic promises, primarily to win power is the bedrock to a failed government.

·         Trustworthiness: Strong personality/ charisma. A ‘magician president’ must possess a reliable, strong personality that his followers can look up to

·         Tact: This attribute is a given for all leaders looking to make a mark. Knowing how to manage situations is very important. As a leader, one needs to be calm and calculated before making any move because it may save the nation from a lot of economic upheavals

·         Good strong intellect: Although it may seem irrelevant for one to become a magician president he needs to be a person of high intellect, sound education and good experience because all these qualities would come in to bear during the course of any presidential reign

·         Vocal dexterity. Also necessary is proper representation of his nation in the global space. A president needs to be a person of choice words. Words though small are of great value and importance because they paint a picture of inner thoughts. It is also important to have good representation in the manner of a spokesperson to handle all media and press briefings. The appointment of the spokesperson should be painstakingly carried-out.

·         Man management: Another very important quality - people management skills. This is embodied in the phrase ‘people person’. The ability to keep others around him properly motivated and grounded at all times is a good quality any good leader should possess in order to achieve set goals. This also translates in the president being able to transform the mindset of the people leaving them stronger and better mentally than before the assumption of office,

·         External relations: Another very important quality needed is the ability to maintain good international relationship with other nations. No nation is an island on its own, it is necessary to maintain a good relationship with other neighboring nations as this shows an openness to development and foreign investment which is tantamount to economic growth at all levels,

·         Firmness: A leader should also be firm and be known to stand for what he/she believes in; because all over the world a lot of opinions and allegiances may sway the decision of a leader,

·         Exemplary followership: it is said that for one to be a good leader one has to first be a good follower as well; this is a necessary quality of any good leader. He/ she must be willing to teach and be taught.

It cannot be over stressed that in spite of all the above mentioned qualities it is also paramount for such a president to show consistency in action, policy formation and decision making without any form of bias or sentiment. Margaret Thatcher of Great Britain, Nelson Mandela of South Africa and Barack Obama of USA are good examples of leaders who have been known through time to exhibit one or more of such qualities.

 THE VENOMS

The venom to good governance are challenges that befall any government, especially when not prepared to counter them before, in the course and after the tenure of office.

·         godfatherism,

·         greed,

·         sentimentalism, tribalism and nepotism as against having the best hands for the job,

·         lack of proper communication channels between the leaders and masses,

·         poor attitude of backup advisers and policy makers,

·         low intellect and narrow scope of knowledge on the part of the leader,

·         limited experience of the leader,

·         lack of established government parastatals to handle both economic and political demographics,

·         unpatriotism,

·         unfavourable political situations in most countries,

·         bureaucratic nature of today’s society,

·         absence of proper framework to boost quality of service delivery,

·         corruption,

·         external influences on decisions and policies by more powerful and influential members of society, as well as foreign nations

Proactive steps must be employed to combat these venoms, as its existence speedily diffuse to all quarters and element of government, thereby gradually leading to governance failures.

Asides these aforementioned points, the challenges (educational and employment) faced by the skyrocketing youth population in the society today makes good leadership a stringent priority, as the youth are the leaders of tomorrow.

MAGICIAN PRESIDENT SUCCESSES:

The bigger picture to this work are the successes credited to a Magician President, as these would have the country being the centre of attraction and reference point to the economic advancement. A handful of these successes are as follows:

·         Widespread political stability and economic development,

·         Good quality education at all levels and tiers of government (comprising the private and secondary schools). Also encompassing favourable literacy levels,

·         Ability of the government to adapt and take full advantage of trending opportunities taking the world by storm (e.g. technological advancement),

·         Strong per capita income and favourable/surplus budget, as well as trade surplus being a norm,

·         Job creation and ease of entrepreneurship opportunities.

·         The availability of social amenities and infrastructural facilities (good roads, efficiently equipped hospitals, power consistency and availability) are pivotal, as these are incentives needed to encourage FDI’s to not just consider investing in the country but seeing investment as a must and no-brainer,

·         High life expectancy,

·         Low emigration,

·         Low crime,

·         High and efficient security,

·         Zero corruption tolerance.

The Magician President succeeds not because he is smart or knows it all but due to his or her passion at having the future of his or her country in his heart, consciousness to be surrounded by the best possible team with the right skill set, knowledge and exposure to bring to bear the yearnings of the people, whilst never contemplating the need to secure a bright future for many generations yet unborn because it is just what it is, the usual and in such not so much of a big deal.

To the Magician President, leadership successes is centred on achievements, possibly beyond the manifesto being a manifestation of the President’s “magicianism”  to have his or her accomplishments subconsciously entrenched  in the heart of the citizens.

Conclusively, talk is never cheap to the Magician President but very expensive, as all plans and expectations to widely move the nation forward are carefully and consciously selected, reviewed and deemed realistic to implement before and whilst leading the country.


Written by Taiwo, Kehinde Oluwaseyi and Elame Osigbemhe.